Our Perspective.
For a long time, we have believed that the consequences of monetary and financial largesse, and more specifically, the swift reversal of these, will ultimately be the cause of the next crises.
In our opinion, many of the issues we now face, including the cost-of-living crisis, the boom-and-bust of crypto-mania, the excessive leverage burdening the global financial system and the failure of SVB/ Signature Bank, are all either direct or indirect outcomes of irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies over the last decade, if not longer One can even argue that Credit Suisse is an outcome of ever-lower cost-of-capital and poor controls combined with capitalist greed!
Our fear is that Central Banks feel obliged to reverse direction in fighting inflation too soon, and re-start policies which once again create moral hazard. That said, we believe inflation is likely to fall throughout this year, and that the coming battle relates to ensuring that overly rapid tightening of monetary conditions doesn’t break anything. Well…cracks have shown up! Tread carefully!!!!
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